Minority Report: Predictive technology is here

There’s a scene in Minority Report – the 2002 Spielberg-directed movie – where Tom Cruise sees ads popping up that anticipate his needs.

Jason Aaronson explains in a 2002 ClickZ article:

For those who haven’t seen the movie, the relevant part for this article is the depiction of electronic billboards and displays. Using a retinal scanner, the billboards (such as those on the walls of a subway) call out the name of the passerby. One ad, for American Express, shows the passerby’s name on an American Express card, with the “Member Since” field dynamically updated to reflect that person’s membership. A Guinness ad speaks to Tom Cruise’s character as he walks by, saying, “Hey, John, you look like you could use a Guinness!” The most interesting example, however, is when Cruise’s character walks into a Gap store. The ad welcomes him back and asks if he enjoyed the shirts he had bought previously.

To produce the movie, Spielberg assembled a “think tank” of MIT futurists to imagine what the world would look like in 2054.

Anyone participating in online advertising over the past few years know this isn’t complete fiction – or that farfetched. Our ability to track and tailor advertising has increased dramatically.

For once, the future may be closer than we think.

Personalization and Customization will define upcoming web technology

In his forward-thinking (and practical) book, Marketing in the Moment, Michael Tasner shares that customization is playing an increasing role in personalizing our online experience.

“We are starting to expect our name to appear at the top of websites, and advanced shopping and checkout options that suit our buying habits. As the Web becomes more and more intelligent, personalization will become the norm.”

Facebook, Pandora lead the rise of recommendation engines

Katie referred me to this article from Time that provides a good overview of the science behind recommendations.

The trouble with recommendation engines is that they’re really hard to build. They look simple on the outside — if you liked X, you’ll love Y! — but they’re actually doing something fiendishly complex. They’re processing astounding quantities of data and doing so with seriously high-level math. That’s because they’re attempting to second-guess a mysterious, perverse and profoundly human form of behavior: the personal response to a work of art. They’re trying to reverse-engineer the soul.

We used to learn about new works of art from friends and critics and video-store clerks — from people, in other words. Now we learn about them from software. There’s a new class of tastemakers, and they’re not human.

Personalization and Customization are two separate things

Usability expert Jakob Nielsen describes them as follows:

1. Customization is under direct user control: the user explicitly selects between certain options
2. Personalization is driven by the computer which serves up individualized pages based on needs

Nielsen calls personalization over-rated. But since his article was written in 1998, I would suggest technology has evolved to a point where this is untrue.

It almost makes advertising unfair…

Or at least until your competitors catch up.

Nick and I were one of the early adopters of remarketing technology for Google’s Display (banner) Network. The return on investment we got – and are getting – is extraordinary.

Maybe that has to do with the first-mover advantage, or maybe it’s just a rock-solid advertising tactic. The more targeting options you have, the more relevance you can deliver.

Privacy concerns

High levels of customization and personalization are enabled by collecting large amounts of data and recording someone’s browsing history. This is a major concern for some, while others don’t give it a second thought.

Wherever you stand on this, privacy will become a key issue to address as these technologies develop.

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This is more big-picture, this-is-how-tech-is-evolving stuff than something you can go out and implement today. But I’m certain these trends will play an increasing role as months go by.

I’ll be keeping a very close watch for how we can be using this to our advantage.